Tony Allen-Mills, New York
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For most of the week she had seemed to be presiding over yet another fiasco for American foreign policy, yet Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, looked surprisingly chirpy as she toasted Polish officials at the signing of a new defence deal in Warsaw on Thursday.
Her hosts provided a bottle of Georgian wine for a dinner with Radoslaw Sikorski, the Polish foreign minister, and Rice leapt at the opportunity to express solidarity with the victims of Russian aggression in the Caucasus.
Despite widespread criticism of America’s failure to curb Moscow’s advance and its apparent lack of options for a punitive response, Washington appeared quietly confident that Russia’s short-term gains in Georgia would turn into a long-term diplomatic headache for Moscow, which the US may be able to turn to its advantage.
“I don’t think this is a new cold war,” Rice declared after signing an agreement to deploy part of America’s long-range missile shield on Polish soil. “It’s a difficult time but I think we shouldn’t overstate the depth of the difficulties.”
Her confidence was based in part on the continuing refusal of Russia’s former communist neighbours to be cowed by the Georgian conflict - Poland, Ukraine and Georgia have all shown readiness to continue cooperating with the West - and partly on the US State Department’s assessment that long-term Russian economic interests will force Moscow to negotiate eventually.
Yet several US analysts warned that Moscow still holds the upper hand in any future diplomatic showdown. There may be no return to cold war-era nuclear threats of what used to be known as MAD - mutually assured destruction - but East-West relations seem certain to stay in cold storage for a time.
“The events of the past two weeks have been a disaster for US foreign policy,” declared Daniel Benjamin, a foreign policy expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington. “Russia’s invasion of its neighbour is a clear demonstration that the US-led effort to integrate postSoviet Russia into the West has failed.”
Johannes Linn, his Brookings colleague, agreed there was a risk that “a cold war mentality will strengthen on both sides . . . the Georgians’ hope to integrate quickly with Europe and Nato . . . has been, at best, set far back”.
Frederick Kagan, a prominent military analyst who has been described as one of the intellectual architects of the US military “surge” in Iraq, added: “We are de facto in an escalation game with the Russians that they appear to be winning.”
Experts on Russia noted that a weapons-buying trip to Moscow last week by President Bashar al-Assad of Syria may be a harbinger of future conflict. Washington’s need for Moscow’s cooperation in the international war on terrorism could easily be confounded if Russia starts shipping weapons to Syria, Iran, Venezuela or any other antiAmerican state.
With its United Nations security council veto, Moscow can also obstruct Washington on a variety of issues from nuclear proliferation to the Middle East peace process. It has already vetoed sanctions against Zimbabwe, to the dismay of both Washington and London Kagan believes that Moscow is trying to drive a wedge between America and Europe and that Vladimir Putin, the prime minister who is still regarded as the ultimate source of Russian power, is banking on European distaste for confrontation to ensure that Moscow gets its way. After a Nato foreign ministers’ summit last week failed to produce significant measures, Moscow’s ambassador derided the meeting as “a mountain that gave birth to a mouse”.
US foreign policy hawks are already sniping at Europe for failing to enforce an agreed ceasefire in Georgia. Sally McNamara, a senior Europe policy analyst at the right-wing Heritage Foundation, mourned the departure of Tony Blair from Downing Street and denounced Gordon Brown who, she said, “has shown little interest in foreign affairs and has made no significant contribution regarding the crisis in Georgia”.
She added: “By allowing Russia to contravene the ceasefire, the EU has sent Russia the message that the worst it can expect is a slap on the wrist and that its actions will likely go unpunished.”
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in response to Paul Warkworth' comment: if Georgia was a member of NATO then the US and Europe would have had not choice but to send in troops to fight off the Russians. Do you want to go into world war 3 to support that crazy Georgian president?
jojo star, windsor, Canada
I'm not sure what people expected the US to do. They couldn't very well send in the military. Be happy they didn't.
paul, warkworth, canada
The reason why the Eu ,Especially Germany and France are allowing the Russians to have their own way in Georgia,is They are terrifed of the Russians turning off the Gas and Oil supplies
Don Brown, york, uk
By the way, Hitler seased power as a result of democratic elections in Germany. Wasn't he maybe a fascist because of it?
Alex, Gothenburg, Sweden
This isn't a new pattern. We had to stand by while the Russians rolled into Hungary in 1956 and into Czechoslovakia in 1968. In the 1990s, when we were coasting on Reagan's military legacy, there were limits to what we could do. Remember the mess in the Balkans? We did very little for 10 years,
Vance P. Frickey, Denver, Colorado, USA
"If the West thinks that it has the upper hand over the rest of the World, why it is unable to defeat Al-Caida and Talibans.... " Another Russian troll. They're all over the Internet now, with their broken English and their mock-clever posting as being from everywhere but their benighted homeland.
Vance P. Frickey, Denver, Colorado, USA
I was never fooled and never will be by current leaders in Russia. Putin is a finely trained KGB officer dedicated to world domination by Russia. Now that they have found wealth in oil , they feel they can roam the world in search of their aim to dominate and bring Communism back. Shame on us.
John Hollingsworth, Collierville, u.s.a.
When arrogant USA start to bomb Serbia, they opened PANDORA box, double standards doesent applay anymore, Bear is now ready to rock and roll, so fasten your seatbelts...
Zoran, Limerick, ROI
I'd rather have democratic Russian influence over the fascist US any day.
Peoples republic of Manchester
Dan, Manchester, UK
I don't think there's a sane person left in all of Western media. I have NEVER seen such a preponderance of lies as in the coverage of Russia over the Georgia affair, which, by the way, was instigated entirely by Georgia at the encouragement of the West.
Roland, Dallas, USA
From Zimbabwe to Iran, Russia has already obstructed any UN action the see fit. What is going to get worse? They will keep doing the same, just as they would have otherwise?
Summers, Menlo Park , CA, USA
Here we go again.The old commies game .Anybody that does not agree with them is fascist.Georgia is democratic country and that is not fascist.If USA would open its door half of Russia would come to USA.I wnder Why?USA is a source of good democracy anywhere in the world not only Georgia.
Clapci Bruno, Vancouver,
Well she's chirpy because she is paid to be so and she probably isn't too smart, to be blunt. Fact is the US and NATO have been exposed as mainly hot air and posturing without the means or ability to stop Russian actions. Don't think the world hasn't noticed the ineffectual and feeble US response.
Hal, Tucson,
Over the past 50 years, the US relentlessly helped terrorists and ugly regimes in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Chile while seriously hurting secular countries like Iraq, Syria and India. As the neocons are hell bent on world domination, Inda, China and Russia must unite to save the world.
Rakesh Krishnan, Auckland, New Zealand
Mario:
You ask why the west is unable to defeat ...
The answer is simple. The west is civilized and inhibited by leftist propaganda paid to "useful idiots" by Russia, Saudi Arabia, et al. The Ruski leadership and Imams are not.
Frank Lee, San Diego, USA
Nothing has really changed the US has its Monroe Doctrine that is enlarged in terms of Geographical coverage due to the disintegration of the Soviet State and Russia's traditional Near Abroad (their Monroe Doctrine) is still current.
Abbas, Toronto, Canada
Wrong thinking , Americans play poker , Russians play chess
Bush has a busted flush ,and has been called
Medvedev / Putin have destroyed a lateral threat to their center
they know their moves and variations
Bush only has bluster
If one play the great game , some competency is desirable
robert, Sydney, Australia
Russia is not plying game there. She's defending the life of civil people from the fascist's Georgia, who in turn is playing a dangerous game by USA scenario.
Alex Iatskovski, New York, USA
The US missed it's chance to finish Russia when the drunk Yeltsin handed it to them on a plate! This so called expert, Kagan, is nothing but a war mongering fascist, he's happy so long as it's young Christian US soldiers who do the killing & dieing. Moses would have been the enemy of these Neocons!
PS, Solihull, UK
If the West thinks that it has the upper hand over the rest of the World, why it is unable to defeat Al-Caida and Talibans. Good luck neocons! You make the International Court of Justice for other countries, but you are not willing to recognize that Court. What a hypocrisy!
Mario, San Francisco, USA