Giles Whittell
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The Nato chiefs who gathered yesterday in Brussels have reason to be dismayed — but only if they make the mistake of blurring tactics and strategy.
With a thoroughly old-fashioned tank charge, Russia has won a tactical coup in the Caucasus. It has rubbed salt in Georgian and American wounds by blindfolding Georgian troops in American Humvees in the port of Poti and forcing US officials to demand their vehicles back.
Farther east yesterday, Nato suffered another tactical setback with the loss of ten French soldiers to Taleban fighters.
The casualties were tragic and the timing unfortunate. But the two conflicts are separate. More importantly, the newer of the two, in Georgia, makes Nato expansion more likely rather than less. This is precisely the outcome that Russia had hoped to avoid. Two weeks ago Nato was divided not only on the question of Georgia’s headlong bid for membership, but also on the broader issue of whether it was worth antagonising Moscow with further expansion into the former Soviet Union. Germany, France and Italy argued against. At their request, Nato pointedly refrained from setting a timetable for Georgian membership at its summit in Bucharest in March.
What a difference a short war can make. By sending its 58th Army through the Roki tunnel into South Ossetia, Moscow hoped at the very least to deepen Nato divisions.
The opposite has happened. Instead of arguing that the crisis proved her point about the need for restraint, Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, has explicitly endorsed Georgia’s bid for membership. France may still have its doubts. If so, they remain private. There are two main reasons for Nato’s newfound unity. First, there is a strengthening consensus that Moscow would have acted with more restraint had Georgia already been in Nato, protected by its principle of collective security.
As one expert with long experience of the region put it yesterday: “The thought of the US Air Force on its way would have deterred even Vladimir Putin.”
Secondly, the “frozen” conflicts in South Ossetia and Abkhazia that stood in the way of Georgian membership have, rightly or wrongly, unfrozen.
Moscow’s coup is to have seized de facto control of these two tiny provinces. It has done so at huge cost to its diplomatic standing and may yet suffer serious economic isolation as a long-term result of the conflict.
Nato was wrongfooted but not substantially weakened. It may have struggled to gain the upper hand against the Taleban but, as the Cold War showed, nothing unites the West’s otherwise quarrelsome democracies quite so effectively as a nuclear superpower.
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There is no way united States would had think of sending the air force over Georgia .Russia hides military info for 30 yrs at least, its a supplier of energy, 25% of world supplied and can stand a 30 days world. After that Bush would be impeached, diplomacy starts,Georgia becomes a Russian state.
JR, New York, united states
The article blows things out of reality.
The U.S. will never send bombers over Russia because then you have to send in ground troops.
If you think Iraq and Afghanistan is a quagmire, costly!
They have left out China as a possible ally to Russia.
The U.S. is becoming war weary. Euopeans are.
Malcolm Beach, London, Canada
Mr. Stevens, your assumptions are based upon a petroleum economy. That economy has less than 2 decades left on the stage of human history. Russia's aggressive actions ensure that no one in the West has any illusions of allowing Russia to dictate it's energy future. And the West -will- transform.
Bob, Washington, USA
We are used to working with divided countries. Give us ten years and we'll make a Georgian Army that is so tough Russia will worry.
Gregory Baker, Odenton, Maryland , USA
Only fools predict that a superpower believes Russian isolation can weqaken and subdue it powers.Its 20 times the size of UK and 1.5 times the size of USA and has got lot of natural gas reserves not just oil.Shameless NATO with empty words.
James Hardy, London, UK
Tom Welsh of Basingstoke has it right. NATO is finished as an effective military alliance due to "expansio ad absurdum" and being jacked by the US into a futile and counterproductive war against the people in Afghanistan. The Pashtun want them out and will prevail in the end.
tarquinis, Seattle, USA
"The thought of Air force one on its way would frighten even the Russians" i guess this is true
However the thought of the Typhoon and much newer Berkei class missile submarines will frighten even the most hardline of Nato. No missile shield will stop these.
Chris, rochdale, GB
You are dreaming. Europe and the US need Russia more than Russia needs them. Amusingly the US needs Russian help to cannot get to the International Space Station between 2010 and 2015! As Kissinger says the US must choose between containing Russsia or cooperating. Bush and you are clowns re policy.
Kiwi, Wellington , New Zealand
Once again NATO members convinced that old Europe try to become coffin maker of democracy. Lets face it: NATO didnt point real human tragedy, conversely it demonstrated own hatred to Russia only. That is dangerous signal for all and for Europe firstly
Serg Ruh, Krasnodar , Russia
If the Georgians had one just F16 instead of the seven heaps of Russian junk that comprised their airforce there'd be no Russian aggressors on Georgian soil.
Boris, London, UK
It takes about 10 years to build a major pipeline so the Russians simply can't stop selling to the west and switch over to China. But as we have seen, it can take only a week to steal one.
Tony, Aberdeen,
If Georgia had been admitted to nato, Shaakashvili would not have invaded South Ossetia. Being a member of Nato means more safeguards against members acting in an unpredictable / irresponsible way. So Russia is wrong on all counts (Nato = in fact more safety for Russia).
Marcin, Warsaw, Poland
Russia has shown the whole world its true face. To keep the status quo everything has to change. Therefore Russia changed from a comunist dictatorship, run by KGB, into a democratic dictatorship, always run by KGB. It's still a military dictatorship. Russia is not a friend yet, not to be trusted!
Andrea, Palermo, Italy
A solution to the problem in Georgia is perhaps to restore the monarchy (which the Russians removed in 1801).
The model worked for Spain which now has a larger economy than Russia's.
Now is the time. Long live King David XIII
Reginald Seymour, Cambridge,
Although the first actions of the georgians were far away of what a democratic country would do to solve a conflict, it's clear that the russian answer remembers us Prague in 1968. The best option for a long term peace between Russia and her former territories -and t West- is that the last join NATO
Guillermo Revuelta, Madrid,
NATO proves pathology in thinking:
1.- If Baltic states start killing Russians (their 2nd grade citizens 25% of population) - Russia will do the same
2.- USA was sending Sting missiles when Russians were in Afghanistan - what could happen now?
3.- Oil pipes could have technical problems - 3 months?
savo, london, uk
Winston, mate. Western politcians don't want to control the strategic oil route, they simply want it open to the free market.
The problem is Russia uses its pipelines as political tools.
Maqbool, Aden,
What else do you execute an Old Fashioned Tank Charge other than with old fashioned tanks?
The Russians should be embarressed rolling this junk out in front of the world's press.
Wherever Putin has been spending his billions it clearly wasn't on the military.
Boris, London,
I want to address to Georgians on behalf of some Russians.We dont want to take your land and freedom. We have no desire to rule you.The pain of people who suffer as in Ossetia as in Georgia causes a pain in our hearts. I hope our troops will be withdrawn as quickly as possible. Please forgive us.
Vladimir , Rostov-na-Donu, Russia
it is wonder how some counties can occupy other countries
for years, unprovoked attacking them and doing regime change, but when Russia defends their citizens, they are agressor. Russia thought Georgia and nato a lesson about international law. Problem is only that West thinks that they are law
hajro, Maribor, Slovenia
Winston of Russia - couldn't have summed it up better myself. Most Brits think the same, despite what our own current idiot Government tries to put across.
Roarke, Wembley, UK
Russia is continuing scaring the West and the West tries to avoid the direct confrontation. Unfortunately, Georgia and its, softly speaking, strange leader, do not currently decide anything. Handling of the crisis is in the hands of Russia and the West. Let's see who is stronger and smarter...
Levan Alpaidze, Tbilisi, Georgia
Eric in NZ, Russia is already suffering the economic consequences of its numerous actions over the last year. Just watch the RTs drop even further, the economy slow down even faster as they isolate themselves yet again.
Kenneth Hart, Nuneaton,
I totally agree with Rusty, USA. People in Europe don't want Georgia in Nato with a nutty lying president, poor economy and a boiling pot of territorial problems and conflicts. Western politicians just want to control the strategic OIL route, they don't care that it may lead to cold war again.
Winston, Novosibirsk, Russia
What part of "North Atlantic Treaty Organization" do you not understand? An alliance set up to deter Soviet invasion of Western Europe has no business colonizing Asia. We survived 50 years of Cold War; now is not the time to escalate conflict. At the end of that road lies nuclear war.
Tom Welsh, Basingstoke,
Angela Merkel, being from former East Germany and having grown up under communism dictatorship, showed her old fear from USSR and made a huge mistake by opposing Georgias bid for membership of NATO. Russian saw this as a weakness of the whole western alliance and exploited it by invading Georgia.
John, Atlanta, GA
Hmmm .. not true.
1) Stop the gas for a week ... and many European capitals would be dark at night.
2) The Taleban is fighting NATO ... so far they haven't been shaken by Air Force One.
... make peace with Russia.
Don't isolate Russia.
Richard, London, UK
Alex, NY. Russia could sell its oil to China. China buys all the oil it needs already, so its total consumption of oil will be unaltered.
The oil China would have purchased from other countries would become available for The West to buy.
Keith S, Winnipeg, Canada
In 1990 NATO pledged not to expand its frontiers to the East, and has been expanding ever since: 10 new members, now Georgia and Ukrain lined up. Georgia's membership is now less likely than ever. Poorest country in region, disorganized army, lots of ethnic problems, uncontrollable leader.
Rusty, Columbus, USA
'The Russians threw out 250,000 ethnic Georgians living there and then held a puppet poll of the 30,000 Alains remaining'.
Keith S, Winnipeg, Canada
According to the latest census in 1998 there were about 80.000 Alanians (Ossetians) and nearly 20.000 Georgians to live in S. Ossetia. A number of both nationalities reduced significantly after the 1991-92 war. It would be well to note a big number of Alanians from inner regions of Georgia escaped in N. Ossetia that time.
Alexey, Moscow,
If a MILITARY expert was asked he might say: American Air Force does not have any chance against Russian antiaircraft missiles. To tell about fighting aircrafts Russian SU-29 on Germans service beat American ones repeatedly.
Alexey, Moscow,
Tom, these 2 regions did not secede from Georgia. The Russians threw out 250,000 ethnic Georgians living there and then held a puppet poll of the 30,000 Alains remaining.
Keith S, Winnipeg, Canada
Tom McIntyre:
" ... the Georgians ... invaded, without asking NATO's agreement ..".
What rubbish. The Georgians were provoked, time and time again, by the Ossetians, at Putin's instigation. All this was pre-planned without any doubt at all. Putin said this was going to happen after Kosovo.
Ben, Moscow, Russia
We are all being treated as idiots by the Georgians. They invaded, without asking NATO's agreement, Russian ethnic provinces that had legitimately and democratically seceded long ago. Now they expect NATO to protect them from the justified retribution and protective action of the Russians.
Tom MacIntrye, Ottawa,
This "small beautiful democracy" Georgian style is what Nato really needs. Saakashvili has been treating his domestic critics in no better way than Putin his. That is, with teargas and rubber truncheons. Him being a democrat means him hating Russia and speaking English fluently, period.
Van Zong, Berlin,
Russia will never suffer any economic isolation, 'cause she can send all that oil and gas to the China instead. West will loose any way!
Alex Iatskovski, New York, USA
The thought of the US Air Force on its way would have deterred even Vladimir Putin.
Haha too right, fast track em into NATO right away and let's watch the Russians turn and run
Adam, UK, UK
Russia will never suffer serious economic isolation while it continues to have a stranglehold on Europe's oil and gas supply.
Eric Stevens, Auckland, New Zealand