OPINION on the prospects for the property market is dividing into two camps: those who forecast showers and the odd squall, and the pessimists who see only dark clouds on the horizon.

Public mud-slinging between the two factions is yet to begin, but it can only be a matter of time. Those who foresee only a slowdown are viewed as mouthpieces of vested interests by their opponents - who, in turn, stand accused of talking Britain into a housing recession with their woeful pronouncements.

Meanwhile, almost every day both camps are contriving to find new justifications for their standpoint. For example, reports that developers are “mothballing” city-centre schemes until the climate improves caused Assetz, an investment company, confidently to predict a 5 per cent growth for 2008.

There is (unusual) agreement on all sides that the oversupply of such accommodation could put more than a dampener on the whole market. In June 2006, Bricks and Mortar questioned why construction companies were building tiny one-bedroom flats when families wanted three-bedroom houses. At that time, the prices of these inner-city apartments were already underperforming. Maybe buyers were guessing that the description “executive” - often used in relation to these undersized properties - was inspired by the hope that owners would be so exhausted by work that they would not notice how diminutive their homes were.

Background

• Opening bids - Is it Christmas already? Tell Santa to break out a rate cut without further delay?

• Which economists will win the contest to be the gloomiest over the future for prices?

• Which camp are you in - storm clouds or showers? Even the experts are split

• Opening bids - a year in property

Background

• Opening bids: Why the Government must do something about Britain’s empty properties

• Will there be a rate cut before Christmas? Kate Barker knows - but she’s not telling

• Downturn and downtown in 2008: how investors in UK city-centre flats may feel the chill first

• Opening bids

Sub-prime slime is oozing out everywhere from the US -where will it spread next?

Background

• Comment: The housing shortage

• Ripple effect from Belgravia to the suburbs

• Comment: the property market slowdown

• Tax perks for a few are adding to the property have-nots’ sense of injustice, but don’t expect reform any time soon

• This was not a timely retreat. What does the government now mean to do to save the planet?

The silencing of our Mr Spocks

Our public administration has specialised in low-level, chronic inefficiency with a counterpoint of big talk

Background

• Average prices in the South are 1.59 times higher than the North

• The City’s ardour for status homes remains unabated

• The dawn of a more eco-conscious Britain may be delayed

• It's bonus time, let the stampede begin

• Prices and politics either side of the border

Hips will make us greener, or so the Government says

• Hips have already won hearts and minds and will make us all greener, or so the Government says

Background

• Mortgage competition makes millions immune to base-rate moves

• Hidden costs of a place in the sun

• Primark Principle revises gloomy views

• Going green is not cheap

How to fight your way out of a housing market slowdown

Do you have the clout to tough out the downturn? Emma Wells and Lucy Denyer sort victors from victims

Background

• Housing market analysis: the plight of first-time buyers

• Home economics - January's shock house price stats

• Home economics - the property market

• The harder they fall

• Home economics

Background

• Wise up to size

• The property market: October 21, 2007

• Shires fall to foreign land rush

• House price gloom as the wealthy turn away

How to beat a property market slowdown

The market is cooling. But learn the rules and it could work to your advantage

• Why won't my house sell?

Background

• Empty homes: the mystery of the UK’s million vacant homes

• Opening bids: Why the Government must do something about Britain’s empty properties

• It’s dire in the shires

• Cash in on your biggest asset

Smoking ban: a drag on prices?

Paula Hawkins examines whether house prices have gone up in smoke

Background

• Misery for over-extended and over-indebted

• UK house market is ‘heading for crash’

• The property market: October 14, 2007

• Held to ransom

Assetz now lines up with those who believe that house prices will be almost unchanged next year (Hometrack and Nationwide) and those who foresee modest increases (Knight Frank and Savills).

Halifax has yet to reveal its forecast. But its November survey, which showed prices slipping by 1.1 per cent, did cause Capital Economics, the most vocal pessimist, to declare that “our prediction for prices to fall by 3 per cent year-on-year in 2008 is now beginning to look too conservative”. Martin Ellis, Halifax's chief economist, interprets the data in a rather different way. He argues that “a robust UK economy and the accompanying sound health of the labour market provide strong underpinnings for the market”.

Mr Ellis also suspects that small price falls will lure out buyers currently sitting on the sidelines. This may coincide, however, with a new difficulty in obtaining mortgages from Halifax and other banks who have become more circumspect in the wake of the credit crunch. Let us hope they know the difference between prudent lending and tightfistedness.

SNOW PATROL

Suddenly Switzerland has charms among those who were previously inclined to think it dull, if scenic. Lewis Hamilton, the Formula One star, is swapping Stevenage for Geneva, supposedly to evade the paparazzi although the attractions for the very rich of the Swiss forfait taxation system are considerable. Your bill is based not on your earnings, but as a minimum on the rental income of your home, multiplied by five.

Some among London's well-heeled resident-non-domicile international community are also thinking of a new future in Geneva, fearing that the £30,000 annual charge imposed by the Chancellor is the beginning of the end of their UK tax privileges. A handy B permit allows you to live in Switzerland and buy a property. You may not work, but easy flights mean that you could still hold down that highly-paid City job.

Skiers who are modestly well-off, rather than loaded, are also pondering the possibility of hideaways in such resorts as Verbier and Zermatt, following the abolition of rules restricting sales to foreigners. But they may be disappointed. As Simon Malster, of Investors in Property, a specialist ski business, says: “It's good news and bad news”, as fresh controls have been imposed by Valais, the Verbier and Zermatt canton. Valais will allocate most of its second-home permits to those who were already in the process of buying. Valais argues that second-home ownership pushes up prices beyond the reach of first-time buyer locals.

However, Vaud, the neighbouring canton, has no restrictions on permits; Villars, its key resort, may not be as swish as Verbier, the haunt of James Blunt and Hugh Grant, but it does have summertime attractions.

Wherever you go, it seems, the purchase of a holiday hideaway can be political.

BUCKS DOESN'T FIZZ

A celebrity link can be a good way to market your home, but it seems that well-known figure should not be a politician. In October Tony Blair was reputed to be interested in Winslow Hall in Buckinghamshire. But now he is not buying this £3million mansion designed by Sir Christopher Wren. Moreover the agent has not had a single offer. Mr Blair, whose bet on Connaught Square in Bayswater is turning into a wise gamble, was perhaps told that the sure-fire location for a country pile is the Cotswolds - less snobby than Bucks, apparently.

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