ANNE ASHWORTH PROPERTY EDITOR
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THE reaction of buy-to-let investors to the market slowdown is a subject on which almost everyone has an opinion, usually pessmistic.
But many of these views are based on the assumption that there is only one such kind of investor. This is someone who remortgaged his own home to take a gamble on a second property, without regard to the requirements of tenants who like a neutral decor and who want to be close to public transport. Buckling under the burden of higher interest rates, he now wants to sell – at any price.
However, while this may be an accurate description of some of those who ventured into buy-to-let, there are many others who see their second property as a long-term commitment. They also guessed that potential tenants would need to travel easily to their employment to pay their rent and were suckers for any Dulux neutral shade (Mellow Mocha, Perfectly Taupe and all the rest). Many of these investors are under no pressure to sell, as they are enjoying rising rents, a situation that the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors forecasts could last into 2008. RICS even suspects that many will use the equity in their properties to add to their portfolios. This forecast indicates that buy-to-let activity will continue to be some support to the market – the opposite of the scenario envisaged by the gloom-mongers.
But RICS has done some sums that suggest that, in the future, buy-to-let will be a business on the side for rather fewer people. The new cautiousness of lenders means that aspiring amateur landlords will now need to find a deposit of 30 per cent of a property’s value – an average of £65,600. Five years ago, when lenders were less circumspect, the typical deposit was just 8 per cent – £10,100. No wonder that buy-to-let was seen as seen as a one-way bet.
SCREEN BEAUTIES
The cooling of the market poses a challenge to that sizeable group for whom property is a passion, bordering on an obsession. Some are redirecting the energy they usually devote to their favourite pastime of viewing candidates for their next dream home into ambitious improvements of their existing home.
But, for some, a grand domestic redesign that should bolster the value of their home in a slow market is not sufficient outlet for their real estate obsession. They are finding solace, however, in the handsome homes featuring in the recent rash of swish TV dramas. One of the stars of ITV’s adaptation of E.M. Forster’s Room With A View was the rambling Edwardian residence of Lucy Honeychurch, the heroine. A privately-owned Lutyens house in Puttenham, Surrey, took this role. Opinions were divided this week among those who thought this the ideal house and others who argued for the elegant Central London mansion that featured in BBC1’s Joe’s Palace, the Stephen Poliakoff drama that also screened last Sunday night.
Two properties played this key part: the exterior of a house in Mayfair’s Hill Street and the Grade II listed Langley Park House in rather less grand Uxbridge, in which the interiors were filmed. This Georgian pile, soon to be an hotel, changed hands for £2.4 million in 2004. The two properties will reprise their role in Capturing Mary, another Poliakoff drama that airs on Monday.
Sold, a series that starts next Thursday on ITV, could provide a salutory reminder that property purchase can be anything but pleasant. Anthony Head stars as Mr Colubrine, the serpent-like boss of a venal estate agency. But the firm employs Matt, an agent with a heart who believes that a dream home can be the route to happiness and that houses are for nesting, not investing. A hero for our times, perhaps?
WHO NEEDS GARDENS ANYWAY?
Fear has yet to stalk the streets of Chelsea. But price growth in this and other Central London neighbourhoods slowed to just 0.3 per cent last month, according to Knight Frank research.
Prices in the £1-£2 million sector are subsiding amid fears that job losses in the City will curtail the property-buying ambitions of its workforce. But residences in Knightsbridge and Notting Hill are forecast to remain a draw for overseas buyers. The new dominance of these rich migrants could have one side-effect: more interest in properties without a garden. Thirty and fortysomething investment bankers like a bit of green space to call their own. Overseas purchasers don’t dig the herbaceous border.
Charlie Findlater, of Friend & Falcke, the estate agent, says: “Many residents see a garden that requires maintenance as a positive disadvantage.” His firm is selling a mews house off Cadogan Square, below left, in Knightsbridge; access to the Cadogan Square gardens is included in the £3.95 millon price. Also pictured, below right, is a £950,000 two-bed flat in Tedworth Square, also for sale through Friend & Falcke. This property has views over the gardens of this square – conveniently looked after by somebody else. anne.ashworth@thetimes.co.uk
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As always the vested interests change their advice. Originally buy to let was for capital growth. Now it is to benefit for rising rents. Please explain how rents can substaintially rise as the economic slowdown and credit crunch takes its toll on on employment and squeezes consumer spending.
david barker, maidstone,
Every 6 months they try to put my rent up but I challenge them each time and in 3 years of living here my rent is still the same. I just say Iâll move out and they always back down. I did think however that my rent is very cheep for the value of the house - they'd do much better putting the capital in a savings account. Rent will always be capped by what people can realistically afford, not what they can recklessly borrow.
eddie, Leicester,
I see some off-plan flats still have asking prices which are 20-25% more than the same flats being resold from earlier phases. Apparently the developer knows better than the market..! But still they won't reduce their asking prices. They claim that rents are rising... which is mostly laughable.
Richard, London,
"But many of these views are based on the assumption that there is only one such kind of investor"
"the opposite of the scenario envisaged by the gloom-mongers. "
You mean the doom mongers who have been predicting a house price crash for the past 5 years didnt have all the facts?
Who'd have thought
Dominic, Manchester, UK
Who will pay the higher rents?
There is a reason they haven't moved in 5 years.
Jeff Smith, London, UK
There was a quite amusing quote from the Campaign of Mortgage Lenders last week: "BTL is now only for the rich", because, I paraphrase, prices are high, the average yield does not cover the mortgage and there is little expectation of further capital growth.
"For the rich"? Sounded like "for the financially illiterate" to me!
I relocated in January and sold my home but decided to rent rather than buy a new house, as I foresaw price fals. I'm beginning to feel glad I did!
David, Chester,
BTL is a now a mug's game and I sold my two rental properties in anticipation of what is clearly now happening all over the country - falling property values.
BTL may be propped up a little longer by the financially niave, but the smart money left the scene two years ago. There are far more imaginative ways of investing money than in dead duck enterprises like property investment.
Peter Kiddle
peter kiddle, horsham, west sussex
its a funny old game property, now the down turn is approaching btl is dead in the water, prices are going down poeple are going to be hurt however i never took out a loan and iam going to get the benefits of being Patient and racking up the money in a boom.
mike, london,
I am beginning to think the new mantra of rising rents is an effort to now talk up rents as it is now so difficult to talk up house prices.
It seems a bit strange to be saying that new rental demand is being created by FTBers not being in the buying category anymore (they were already renting so they do not add to new rental demand). It is probably true that this group is still renting while new renters are entering the market BUT the fact that FTBers have been wiped out by BLTers means there will have been at least as many new rental properties added so supply has gone up.
I am renting and my rent has not gone up for 2 years. This does not match what agents are saying (I live in SW London i.e. a very desirable area both by national and London standards). The reason my rent has not gone up is that there are so many rental properties on the market (and this is despite there being so many city types renting here).
Raj, London,
BTL is not a rich man's game - it's an amateur's game. Anyone with serious money knows of far better and more tax efficient ways to mind their money than ploughing it into an illiquid asset with poor growth that can be devalued at any time by random strangers who live in it. Apart from owning residences to live in, the last thing any rich person will buy is property. What truly rich person wants to be a landlord and deal with tenants and rent collection and maintenance problems and letting agents' fees?
MB, Edinburgh,
I also predict an oversupply of BTL property being put up for sale post April 2008.
Im selling now, as sale prices WILL dip next year and a better price now will out weigh the extra tax I would pay next year. Sell, sell, SELL!!!
John R, Newcastle,
I went though the same process as Doug, but my portfolio was smaller. Two properties in London, one in Ealing, one in Finchley. Sold through the summer. A small price reduction was needed but I am glad it is over since now other BTLers I know are having problem disposing their assets.
I felt a bit sorry for the buyers, a young couple totally overstretched with debt. He works for the BBC and later I learned that was made redundant.
My other property went to a BTLer so obsessed to put a foot on the "BTL ladder". I could not stop him, I should have asked for a higher price.
lesson learned: I am glad I am out of property investment, houses are assets but can be huge liabilities as well.
Maureen, London,
I must confess that most of my clients have sold theirs!!!
Pete Balchin, Solicitor , Bristol, UK
I firmly believe that the 2007/8 CGT reduction from 40 to 18% will fundamentally impact on the housing market around mid 2008. Anyone who sells a BTL property before April 2008 will suffer the higher tax rate so I don't see any sense in selling now unless the Capital gain is minimal. I think investors will hold on until next year and then 'flood' the market with ex BTL's thereby further depressing the housing market. Should be a great time to buy for those witha little nerve (as was the early 1990's). On the positive side, this will stabilise the rental sector by reducing over supply thereby increasing rents toward the more realistic levels of the late 1990's. Today's returns of 5 or 6% can only be sustained in times of high capital growth. This downturn in the market will sort the men from the boys.
Paul Broderick, Alton, Hants, UK
Up till spring this year I had 6 BTL properties. In the spring I could see many signs of economic and property market problems developing so I put 3 of my BTL houses on the market. By the autumn they had sold but not without serious price reductions from the asking prices advised by the various Agents I went to. I wish I had put all 6 up for sale in the Spring!! I put the remaining 3 BTL properties on the market in the Autumn to realise as much profit as I can. Like many other BTL'ers I need to do this before all the capital appreciation profit evapourates. There is not much interest out there and it is necessary to reduce prices drastically to get the interest and potential of an actual sale. I'm willing to do this so that I won't have to chase the market down once price falls get into full motion next year. No doubt some people will be taken in by the - 'in it for the long term' - hype from Estate Agents and mortgage lenders. Don't risk losing your money!!! Sell now.
Doug, Birmingham, UK