Leo Lewis, Asia Business Correspondent
Over 900 restaurants nationwide. Find your nearest now
Toyota, the world's biggest carmaker and a symbol of Japanese industrial power, has been stripped of its AAA credit rating for the first time in a decade under the darkening global economic storm.
The downgrade, analysts for Fitch Ratings said, effectively passed a verdict on the entire worldwide motor industry, showing that the business of building cars can no longer produce a single player with the sort of cast-iron corporate resilience of ExxonMobil or Johnson & Johnson.
“This crisis is demonstrating that the auto industry cannot support a triple-A rating,” said Frederic Gits, a Tokyo-based credit analyst for Fitch, which issued the downgrade yesterday and declared the car industry's problems “substantial and fundamental”.
Fitch's downgrade of Toyota's unsecured debt to AA is not only a blow to Japanese corporate pride, but also reflects “severe” turmoil across world car markets and the carmaker's own spectacular profit warning this month.
Two weeks ago and citing a dramatic collapse in US and European sales, Toyota cut a trillion yen (£6.8 billion) from its full-year earnings estimates. If the company hits its new estimate of ¥600 billion for the year to March 31, it could even lose its crown as Japan's biggest profit-generator. The fall of 63 per cent in Toyota's own profit forecasts comes as production is being slowed in various places throughout its empire, and the company has been forced to introduce no-interest loans as enticements in the US and Europe.
Mr Gits said: “A triple-A rating should mean that the company can withstand any shock.
“Although the auto industry is not one that you would think of typically as supporting a triple-A rating, because of its inherent cyclicality, we thought that Toyota's strong market positions, cashflow strength and very substantial financial flexibility were sufficient to deserve the highest rating. However, we are seeing that even the strongest player can suffer when you have such a deep economic shock as we are now experiencing.”
Toyota, in common with other Japanese exporters, has also seen margins annihilated by the rapid rise in the yen against the dollar and the euro — a side-effect of the collapse of global stock markets and the mass unwinding of the yen-denominated “carry trades” that financed so many speculative bubbles. The yen's gains in the past two months have carved a ¥690 billion hole in Toyota's profits, and caused proportionally similar pain to Sony, Canon and Honda.
However, Fitch's downgrade chiefly highlights the harm done to car sales everywhere by the financial crisis. Even after the downgrade, Toyota is by far the highest-rated carmaker. The next strongest global player is Honda, whose debt rating is a full two notches below that of Toyota. America's carmakers are many levels below that, and even the strongest German players, Daimler and Volkswagen, do not rival Toyota in ratings strength.
Behind Fitch's downgrade is a fear of capitulation by consumers in Asia. High hopes for the sales prospects of Japanese and European carmakers were formed amid optimism over Asian growth and expectation that millions of Chinese and Indians would soon switch from scooters to cars. That process has slowed substantially and may be due for a much nastier spasm than the market has realised until now.
The moment your toes touch the sand and your gaze meets water, you know you’re in the Bahamas.
Risk, resilience and embracing new technology
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
05/2005
£13,500
08/2008
£109,950
2005 / 55
£59,500
Great car insurance deals online
Circa £60,000
The Army Benevolent Fund
London
£28k+ Basic + Commission
Drummond Selection
London
12-15 days a year, c £12K
Springboard
London
£Competitive
American Airlines
Heathrow, London
Great Investment, River Views
One and Two Bed Apartments
Wandsworth Town
Times Online Property Search will help you Find It
like nothing on Earth!
.
Must end 28 Feb 2009!
Save up to 25%
Amazing Far East Offers
Visit Malaysia from £755pp
Great travel insurance deals online
.
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2008 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.