David Smith: Economic Outlook
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These are difficult days for the Bank of England. An institution that sets itself high standards and prides itself on its dignity and decorum is getting a battering.
Gordon Brown is making political hay out of the crisis but he is not carrying the Bank with him. For years central-bank independence was his proudest achievement as chancellor. Now I get people asking whether it was such a good idea after all.
At the stormiest press conference since independence, Bank governor Mervyn King and his colleagues were last week accused of being caught with their pants down as the financial crisis turned into an economic crisis. That is not an image I want to dwell on, or can imagine being put to Eddie George, King’s predecessor, but the point was clear. The Bank has lurched spectacularly in the space of three months in terms of its view on the economy and on interest rates. On the face of it, it was not just behind the curve but out of sight.
What is the Bank’s defence? The world, said King, has changed, the outlook has been transformed. After Lehman Brothers was allowed to fail in September by the American government, the global banking system came perilously close to collapse.
Many people accept these were world-changing events. Confidence was weak but dived further. The autumn has been the closest thing to a “falling off a cliff” moment we have seen in this cycle, with very sharp falls in activity. At the same time, oil and other commodities plunged.
It was not hard to find reasons for oil to fall, of which more another time, but the drop was sudden and savage. I don’t want to use that quote from Keynes again, which should be banned, but the facts changed and the Bank changed its mind.
Fair enough. Nobody could have predicted the recent events and nobody did. That explains King’s robustly unapologetic tone.
Incidentally, there is a case for re-examining the piecemeal moves preceding the banking rescue, including the terms of the Bradford & Bingley rescue/nationalisation, the strategy for Northern Rock and even the Lloyds TSB-HBOS merger.
I don’t have a particular problem with the last of these but the B&B rescue is imposing a severe burden on smaller lenders, which have to fund the Financial Services Compensation Scheme, and it makes little sense for Northern Rock to be running down its mortgage book aggressively.
So the past two months have changed things, and the Bank was right to cut rates more aggressively than anybody expected, or hoped. Many of the armchair generals who are now most critical of the Bank were attacking it very recently for not raising rates far enough to stop inflation rising.
I do not think, however, that the Bank should get away with it entirely. There is something to criticise and for me it is a tale of the past three Augusts.
In August 2006, the Bank’s monetary policy committee surprised markets by raising rates for the first time in two years. Before then, the MPC seemed comfortable to live with a rise in inflation due to higher global food and energy prices.
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To be fair, the inhabitants of housepricecrash.co.uk have been predicting this series of events for years now, based on their own and the collective wisdom of the world's less 'piper's tune-dancing' economists. So the writing was on the wall - it was just that noone wanted to go and read it.
MD, Bristol, UK
Let them eat cake - This is what Gordon is saying when he encourages small businesses to borrow more, when they have already borrowed too much and risk losing their homes. More small businesses could be saved by the simply expedient of cutting their business rates.
J Cooley, Fishguard, UK
To blame the BOE is quite simply wrong. The BOE had one brief when G Brown split it from banking regulation, to control inflation based on the CPI (excluding housing, G Brown's decision!).
They have done that very successfully up to now. Regulation has not been successful! G Brown? Thumbs down!
Chris Simmonds, Herne Bay, Kent, UK
What has thrown all these experts is the velocity of money.and the effect on its supply. I suspect a very small supply was made to work hard. One bad deal, and the pack of cards collapsed. Lack of insurance for suppliers, shipping deals falling through. All sorts of unsuspected shortfalls.
ged, manchester,
4 Augusts ago the MPC lowered rates from 4.75% to 4.5% and not long afterwards Mr. Smith you predicted the exponential curve in house prices flattening out into a would be strange curve. The Bank fan charts assign risks to outlook mostly ignored by the media in favour of the central projection.
TJ, St Albans,
When the pound is falling didn't they used to put interest rates UP?
Sue Doughty, Twyford, UK
Over the past 25-30 years rates have fallen from 15% to 5%. This one-off effect created enormous prosperity as the cost of money fell. If rate cuts continue to be used in an attempt to ELIMINATE the economic cycle then the west will end up with 0% interest rates and a long Japanese-style recession.
Derek, Steenberg, South Africa
Today we are or aspire to be a Nation of small property owners - the government should take a 25% stake in the first home a family buys and replace the need for a large deposit which most families dont have. That is the fast and stable way to reignite demand and shopping in Britain.
Nigel, London,
It seems to me that the Bank has got, and continues to get, it so wrong. Now that they have eventually cottoned on to the fairly obvious (that the inflation threat was a paper tiger), they are pontificating about imminent and long lasting gloom. A clear sign that things will recover quite soon.
Rich, London,
To try to save the economy by simply cutting taxes is a futile gesture. Stop the hemorrhaging of jobs by strategic and focused investment in key industries, like construction and engineering. The obvious candidate is renewable (and nuclear) energy, achieving employment and long term energy security
D FAIRWEATHER, LYDNEY, ENGLAND
Again with the rate cuts.
We'll see I guess. But I wonder whether 'entrepreneurs' really deserve all the rewards. That's what your policy really says.
How far would they get without savers? We may be about to find out.
Just a thought.
ps Hope the competition boosts your readership!
adrian, London, UK
There is no need to worry for the UK. Sterling will fall another 10 per cent and after that the economy, including the property market, will rebound. The devaluation of sterling is the easiest way out of this mess, and it is possible because inflation is dead for now.
Peter, Liverpool, UK
If I could change just one thing, it would be the policy of monthly rate reviews. I cannot comprehend why changes cannot be made as soon as the need is identified - as in other parts of the world. Also if more rate cuts are needed, why not just do them now, rather that wait until things get worse?
tony, cheltenham, uk
"Nobody could have predicted the recent events and nobody did." Wrong. I have been reading about the coming credit crunch and economic depression for over 5 years in the writings of followers of the Austrian school of economics. Take a visit to the Mises Institute website and be enlightened.
Neil F, Cheltenham, UK
Thrown in the towel as far as protecting sterling goes too. Press the balloon in one spot it bulges in another. So the cut in interest rates may stimulate the economy but through the dramatic fall in sterling will bring inflation shortly. Stagflation it will be.
N Reed, London, UK
The mistake was cutting the rate aggressively post 9/11 and then leaving it too low for too long. Simple as that.
cww, Ipswich,
I find the "honourable mention" of David Blanchflower galling. Professor Blanchflower didn't vote for a single hike in 2006. This left little room for manoeuvre when the economy started to wobble, as inflation was already too high, and house prices were bubbling out of control.
Andrew, Zuerich,
Maybe the Bank has "thrown in the towel" because it is unable to construct a plan that both addresses the totality of the needs of the UK economy AND satisfies the demands of politicians whose bottom-line is to veto any policy that could lead to their previous decisions being called into question.
Simon Stephenson, Windermere, UK
One can be an optimist or a cynic. The optimist believes that those elected to run the country make decisions for the benefit of the people. The cynic sees hyped up international gatherings to satisfy the public clamour for action while back room deals protect the bankers and the free market.
peterfieldman, paris, france
I have met (i.e. been in the same room as! They wouldn't say they have met me) all the chancellors since Anthony Barber. Plus George Osborne - at an LSE debate with some of the past chancellors. Of those on the list the most capable was Kenneth Clark. The least was Osborne. Can Clarke replace him?
James, London, UK